Total Stops:  210

Day 1 Avg:  40.6

Year

Back to Top

2006 Wheat Quality Council Hard Winter Wheat Tour Completed

Fourteen cars with 53 participants surveyed and evaluated the potential of the Kansas wheat crop the week of May 1-4, 2006.  The total number of field stops was identical to last year at 435. 

The Wheat Quality Council hard winter tour crop scouts received a brief training and tour overview session on May 1 at the Kansas State University agronomy farm after assembling in Junction City, Kansas.

Day one saw the fourteen cars traveling on six different routes from Junction City to Colby.  The scouts reported seeing freeze damage in some areas, ranging from minor to fairly severe.  The Eastern parts of the routes had the highest yielding fields with moisture stress becoming much more evident in the Western one-third of the state. Yields ranged from a high of 78 bushels to a low of 5 bushels with a day one average of 40.6 bushels per acre.  This compares to a day one average of 48.9 bushels in 2005.

Day two the cars traveled from Colby to Wichita. Moisture shortages were again the topic of the day, with yields increasing as we approached the Wichita area. The yield range was from 72 bushels down to Zero bushels with a day two average of 33.5 bushels per acre. The day two average in 2005 was 46.5 bushels.

Day three concluded the tour with the group traveling from Wichita to Kansas City.  It was raining on many of the routes with very muddy fields in some areas.  Due to weighted averages, this smaller wheat production area does not have a huge impact on statewide statistics.  Moisture appeared to be adequate in this part of the state with yields ranging from 23 to 55 bushels per acre and a day three average of 38.8 bushels per acre.  Day three 2005 average was 42.8 bushels.

The results of each day, plus the three-day composite can be seen in the accompanying table.  Past year’s results are noted for comparison: [Go to Wheat Tour Results Archive].

The calculated average for the entire trip was 37.3 bushels per acre versus 46.2 bushels on the same routes last year.  The scouts use a formula provided by the KS Ag Statistics Service to arrive at their calculated average.  The formula is based on a 10-year rolling average and changes slightly from year to year.

Forty-one participants estimated the total production for Kansas at an average of 319.22 million bushels.  This estimate attempts to factor in acres of abandoned wheat or total acres of harvested wheat.  This compares with our estimate of 419.76 million bushels for the same time last year. KS Ag Statistics will release its first official production estimate on May 12.

Scouts from Colorado and Oklahoma also gave the group results of their own state observations.  Colorado estimated 31.4 bushels versus 36 last year. Oklahoma estimated total production of 67 million bushels versus 128 million last year. You have to go back to 1957 to find a wheat crop below 70 million bushels in Oklahoma.  Nebraska is saying their crop looks good at this time, but no estimates have been made.

My personal view is that this Kansas crop still has time to improve in many areas.  If it rains soon in the Western third of the state, good grain fill could give us more bushels.  Most secondary tillers have already been abandoned and head size appears to be smaller than normal, but disease pressure is irrelevant. I don't believe the frost damage is severe, so grain fill is critical to this crop. If it does not rain soon, I believe this crop is in serious trouble.

Remember, our estimates are NOT official.  The estimates from KS Ag Statistics are the only official numbers.  We have been remarkably close to their May number in recent years, however. Many times we are both a long way from the final number that gets adjusted until late fall.

Almost one-half of our tour participants were first-timers.  They all reported learning a lot about wheat and having a great time.  We also had four international participants this year--2 from Mexico, and one each from Chile and Colombia.  This indicates a great interest in hard winter wheat production in the great plains.

Thank You to all our members who sent employees, provided cars and helped in many other ways to make this tour a success.  I look forward to your support again next year on the 50th annual Wheat Quality Council hard winter wheat tour.

Please share this information with others in your organization who may not be on our email list.

Remember our Hard Spring and Durum tour coming up on July 24-27.  Registration forms are available on our web site at www.wheatqualitycouncil.org, or click on
'06 Registration Form (PDF - opens new window).

Back to Top