2002 Hard Winter Wheat Tour Completed

Day 1      Day 2       Day 3       3-Day Total     Tour Participants    Summary   

All Averages are Weighted
Day One - April 30, 2002 Range Range    
Route Car Average Stops Low High Route Avg  
Purple 1 42.6 16 30.0 68.0   Colorado Total
Purple 2 44.0 17 24.0 67.0   25 stops
Purple 3           Rg 17.8-43.4
Purple 4         43.3 Avg 28.8
Green 1 37.0 13 26.0 51.0  
Green 2 36.1 16 10.0 51.0   Nebraska Day1
Green 3 41.0 13 20.0 66.0   101 stops
Green 4 36.0 15 31.0 46.0 37.4 Rg 24-71
Pink 1 35.0 13 25.0 51.0   Avg 45.1
Pink 2 36.8 15 25.0 56.4  
Pink 3 43.5 14 33.2 58.2   Nebraska Day2
Pink 4 37.0 12 24.0 56.0 38.1 22 stops
Yellow 1 35.0 15 23.0 50.0   Rg
Yellow 2 37.0 13 20.0 61.0   Avg 44.3
Yellow 3         35.9
Blue 1 32.1 16 14.7 44.2   Nebraska Total
Blue 2 34.7 15 23.0 49.0   133 stops
Blue 3           Rg
Blue 4         33.4 Avg 45.0
Black 1 35.9 14 26.2 43.9  
Black 2 34.4 17 27.0 47.0  
Black 3         35.1  
            2001 32.6 212 stops
Total Stops 234   Day 1 Avg 37.4 2000 40.8 218 stops

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All Averages are Weighted
Day Two - May 1, 2002 Range Range    
Route Car Average Stops Low High Route Avg  
Purple 1 38 21 21 64    
Purple 2 35 17 22 67   Oklahoma
Purple 3           3.7-4.1 MM Exp Harvest
Purple 4         36.7 5.8 MM Planted
Green 1 32.8 14 25.7 47.8   Prod 100-115MM Bu
Green 2 33 14 21 44   LY 121 MM bu Prod
Green 3           Meeting tonight in Enid
Green 4         32.9  
Pink 1 33 12 18 44    
Pink 2 22 14 5 33    
Pink 3 24.5 16 7 34    
Pink 4 27.6 16 15 41 26.5  
Yellow 1 25.6 5 22.4 30    
Yellow 2 27.5 12 8 43    
Yellow 3         26.9  
Blue 1 37.6 14 29.2 52.5     Two Day
Blue 2 28.1 15 0 40.6     Totals
Blue 3 28.8 10 15.7 41.5    
Blue 4         31.7 Avg 34.5
Black 1 36 14 21 46   Stops 442
Black 2 33 14 19 57   2001 2-day 32.1/438
Black 3         34.5 2000 2-day 41.1/434
           
Total Stops 208   Day 2 Avg 31.3 2001 D2 31.7 226 stops
2000 D2 41.4 216 stops

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All Averages are Weighted
Day Three - May 2, 2002 Range Range    
Route Car Average Stops Low High Route Avg  
Purple 1 47 5 33 54    
Purple 2 46.6 6 36.7 58.3    
Purple 3            
Purple 4         46.8  
Green 1 41.5 5 39 45    
Green 2            
Green 3            
Green 4         41.5  
Pink 1 41 5 40 43    
Pink 2 42 4 33 51    
Pink 3            
Pink 4         41.4  
Yellow 1 60.8 3 57.5 62.5    
Yellow 2 45 4 37 51    
Yellow 3         51.8  
Blue 1 52.8 5 36 64    
Blue 2            
Blue 3            
Blue 4         52.8  
Black 1 54.7 4 31 73    
Black 2            
Black 3         54.7  
           
Total Stops 41   Day 3 Avg 47.3 2001 D3 39.0/ 42 stops
2000 D3 45.1/ 45 stops

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Three Day Total April 30-May 2, 2002
All Averages are Weighted
  Stops Stop/Car Average Low High 2001 2000
Day 1 234 14.6 37.4 10 68 32.6 40.8
Day 2 208 13.9 31.3 0 67 31.7 41.4
Day 3 41 4.6 47.3 31 73 39 45.1
Total 483 13.4 35.6   32.7 41.4
        480 stops 479 stops
Tour Participants - Breakdown
Class   Number Percent
Government 14 25
University 2 4
Media 4 7
Grain 16 29
Milling 6 11
Baker 2 4
Producers 2 4
Other 9 16
55

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2002 Hard Winter Wheat Tour Completed

Summary by Ben Handcock

Fifteen cars and 54 participants surveyed the potential of the Kansas wheat crop the week of April 29 - May 2, 2002. The total number of field stops was 483.

Crop scouts received a brief training and tour overview session April 29 in Manhattan, KS. On April 30, the fifteen cars traveled on six different routes and arrived that evening in Colby, KS. The scouts reported almost no disease problems, but reported a real variable crop yieldwise. Yields ranged from ten to sixty-eight bushels with a day one average of 37.4 bushels per acre.

Day two saw cars going from Colby to Wichita, KS. Again, disease was almost nonexistent, but yields were all over the board. They ranged from 0 to 67 bushels with a day two average of 31.3 bushels per acre.

Day three concluded the tour with a final survey of fields from Wichita to Kansas City. These fields had an average of 47.3 bushels per acre. Due to weighted averages, this smaller production area does not have a huge influence on statewide statistics. Again, lack of disease pressure was clearly evident.

The results of each day plus the three-day composite can be seen in the accompanying tables. Last years results are noted for comparison.

Our calculated formula result for the entire trip was 35.6 bushels per acre versus 32.7 bushels on the same routes last year. Forty-eight tour participants estimated the total production for Kansas at an average of 297.1 million bushels. This compares with our estimate of 277.6 million bushels last year. The Kansas Ag Statistics Service will reveal the actual Kansas production figures later in the year. On May 10, 2002, the Kansas Ag Statistics estimated total production at 296.0 million bushels.

Scouts from Nebraska, Colorado and Oklahoma also gave the group results of their own state mini-tours. Nebraska pegged its crop at 45 bushels verses 32 in 2001. Colorado estimated yields of 28.8, the as in 2001. Oklahoma's tour resulted in an estimated total crop 104 million bushels compared to last year's estimate of 87.2 million bushels.

The keys to the 2002 crop are moisture and the number of acres of abandonment. Severe moisture stresses were noted in each state. It looked as if the number of acres of abandonment could be higher than normal, but it is too dry in Western areas to replant to some other crop. Much of this poorer crop may just be left until harvest to see if it is worth harvesting.
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